Consequence-based decision making tools to support natural hazard risk mitigation and management: evidences of needs following the Canterbury (NZ) Earthquake sequence 2010-2011, and initial activities of an open source software development Consortium
Ultima modifica: 2013-05-03
Sommario
Effective risk mitigation and post-disaster recovery depends upon the efficient
allocation of scarce resources through good decision-making. The problem is that
making good decisions depends on understanding many complex problems and their
interrelationships. Good quality, and relevant information must be gathered and
analysed before it can be converted into knowledge that can be applied to mitigate
risks and solve post-disaster recovery problems.
The transformation from reactive to pro-active concepts and tools for planning and
response needs to be supported.
The Canterbury Earthquake sequence 2010-2011 in New Zealand highlighted the
need for decision support tools to inform and support, among others, decision on:
• damage assessment, recovery and resilience enhancement of impacted
infrastructures;
• the management of temporary housing in the short and long-term;
• the reconstruction planning at urban-level.
First, the paper reports and analyses the aforementioned requirements, based on the
perspectives of the stakeholders and key agencies involved in the same decision
making processes, namely: Strong Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuilding Team,
SCIRT; Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority, CERA; and Canterbury
Earthquake Temporary Accommodation Service, CETAS.
Secondly, the paper presents the idea of an open source solution for consequencebased
decision-making tools to be developed by, and to be made available worldwide
to stakeholders involved in natural hazard risk mitigation and management processes.
To reach this goal, we have established an open source Consortium with members
from multiple countries. The activities of the open source Consortium, summarized in
the paper, include: the further development of existing open-source modeling tools
(e.g. MaeViz, EQvis) along with the necessary IT framework and infrastructure to
support them; and the development of additional applications and modules to address
specific aspects of risk assessment and mitigation, post-disaster response and recovery
for multiple-hazards.
The plan is to open the Consortium to developers and users on a global scale. The
entire international community involved in modeling, analyzing and responding to
risks is invited to participate in this initiative.
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