ANIDIS - L'ingegneria Sismica in Italia, ANIDIS XIX & ASSISi XVII - 2022

Dimensione del carattere:  Piccola  Media  Grande

Exceedance of design seismic actions during the 2016-2017 central Italy seismic sequence: sensitivity to seismic hazard using two source models


Ultima modifica: 2022-09-01


In Italy, seismic ground motion intensity for structural design relies on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Research has shown that it is expected that, even in the case of a moderate magnitude earthquake, ground motion intensities larger than the design counterparts are observed at some sites in the epicentral region. The area where such an exceedance has possibly occurred can be estimated, right after the earthquake, via ShakeMap. In the case of seismic sequences, ShakeMap envelopes allow to identify the fraction of the built environment subjected to at least one exceedance of design seismic actions during the sequence. For the 2016-2017 central Italy sequence, ShakeMap envelopes reveal that exceedance of the design intensity enforced by the current building code occurred in an area covering even thousands of square kilometers, depending on the spectral and exceedance return period. This study quantifies the exceedance area of ground motion intensities according to the PSHA results based on two alternative source models for Italy. One is that at the basis of the PSHA adopted by the current building code, knowns as MPS04. The other is a grid-seismicity source model, herein named MPS19, that has been recently developed as a possible update of MPS04. Looking at ShakeMap envelopes, it is found that the differences between the source models do not turn into relevant differences on the estimated exceedance areas, at least for the spectral and exceedance return periods considered herein.

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